一个稳赚的赌博中心——澳门(一)

  澳门行政长官何厚铧(Edmund Ho)1999年12月20日任职时,这个毗邻香港的前葡萄牙殖民地是一个非常特殊的地方。香港商业巨头何鸿燊hé hóng shēn,Stanley Ho垄断了这一地区昏昏欲睡的赌博业。

  但星期天他的继任者崔世安FernandoChui在澳门回归10周年纪念日正式就职时,何厚铧留给他的是一个稳赚的赌博中心。2009年头10个月,澳门吸引了将近1800万游客并迅速取得了超过120亿的赌博业收入–对一个只有56万人口的城市来说还不错。就赌博业收入来说,澳门先是在2006年超过了拉斯维加斯大道Las VegasStrip,之后也没停止不前,赌场从2006年的24家增加到如今的33家。

  尽管何鸿燊Stanley Ho(他跟何厚铧EdmundHo没有任何关系)仍然在赌博业占据着重要位置,他40年的垄断早在2002年就已经结束了,现在与史蒂夫·维恩SteveWynn和谢尔登·阿德尔森Sheldon Adelson的拉斯维加斯金沙集团Las VegasSands之间有着激烈的竞争。这导致了赌场和旅馆的激增,使澳门过去7年的GDP增速达平均2位数。也许葡萄牙人1847年首先合法化了赌博,但澳门经济从没像现在这样快速增长过,或者说从没像现在这么严重依赖赌博产业过。澳门把房子都押在了赌博上,迄今为止是赢利的。但澳门会一直这么走运下去?

  某种程度上,它还是要依赖北京。像香港一样,澳门是中国的一部分,但有自己的制度。然而,它又与香港不同,澳门完全依赖大陆稳定的游客。澳门是中国赌博唯一合法化的地方。2008年6月,北京限制大陆游客去澳门旅游次数,澳门旅客人数出现了5年半来首次下降。随着年复一年中国对澳门旅游的限制,2009年1月澳门赌博业收入已下降了30%,金沙集团几个赌场的建设也停止了,成千上万的人都失业了。自此后,中国放松了对澳门的签证政策。到今年11月,巴卡拉纸牌游戏和21点纸牌游戏桌上重新聚集了中国大陆游客。赌博业收入与去年同期相比激增了59%。

  尽管年初处境很困难,澳门仍然还没两面下注,还是把一切都赌在了赌场上。前民主制澳门的立法者安东尼奥AntonioNg表示,只要澳门“与中央政府保持非常好的关系,就能维持增长”。但他还说澳门“主要的问题”在于它认为只要与中央政府保持非常好的关系了,经济就会理所当然地增长。

  译文When Edmund Ho, Macau’s first chief executive, assumed office onDecember 20, 1999, the former Portuguese colony near Hong Kong was avery different place. Hong Kong business mogul Stanley Ho had amonopoly on the region’s sleepy gambling industry. The Triads, southernChina’s organized crime conglomerates, killed openly in the streets,and the economy was shrinking fast.

  But on Sunday, when his successor Fernando Chui officially takesover on the 10th anniversary of Portugal’s handover of its tiny holdingto China, Ho will be leaving behind a place that’s been transformedinto the world’s must lucrative gambling hub. Macau attracted nearly 18million tourists and raked in over $12 billion in gambling revenue inthe first 10 months of 2009 – not bad for a local population of only560,000. In terms of gambling revenue, Macau first surpassed Las VegasStrip in 2006, and the city hasn’t looked back, increasing the numberof casinos from 24 in 2006 to 33 today.(Watch TIME’s video “Poker Comes to China.”)Though Stanley Ho (who has no relation to Edmund) is still a majorplayer in the gambling scene, his 40-year monopoly ended in 2002,bringing in stiff competition from the likes of Steve Wynn and SheldonAdelson’s Las Vegas Sands. The resulting casino and hotel boom helpedMacau average double-digit GDP growth over the last seven years. ThePortuguese may have first legalized gambling back in 1847, but Macau’seconomy has never before grown so fast or relied so heavily on theindustry. Macau has bet the house on gambling and so far it’s paid off,but can Macau’s hot streak continue?(Watch TIME’s video “Macau’s Winners and Losers.”)To a certain extent, that will always depend on Beijing. Like HongKong, Macau is officially part of China but has a separate system ofgovernment. Unlike its neighbor, however, Macau is fully dependent onmainland China for its steady stream of tourists. Macau is the onlyplace in China where casino gambling is legal. In June 2008, whenBeijing clamped down on the number of times mainlanders could visitMacau, the number of visitors coming into Macau fell for the first timein five and half years. With China’s travel restrictions in place, yearon year, gambling revenues fell by 30% in January 2009, and Sandsstopped construction of several casino projects, laying off thousandsof workers. Since then, China has eased its visa policy to Macau, andby November this year, the baccarat and blackjack tables were onceagain filled with Chinese mainlanders. Gambling revenues jumped 59%compared to the previous November.(Read “Macau: Is the Casino Boom Back?.”)Despite a rough start to the year, Macau has not hedged its bets andhas gone all in on casinos. Antonio Ng, a pro-democracy Macaulegislator, says so long as Macau “keeps very good relations with thecentral government, then growth will be maintained,” but, he saysMacau’s “main problem” is that this “is taken for granted.”